This is a piece of reflective political scepticism. About the ANC, MK and South Africa.
It was clear, after the 2021 local government elections, that the ANC was in trouble. It had dropped below 50% in the 2021 local government elections. For the ANC, that was a very sore bloody nose. But for the seasoned leaders and senior members within the party, it was a huge red flag. They saw the liability that Cyril Ramaphosa had become to the party’s election fortunes. It was also a moment to act and act fast. The 2024 national election was around the corner. Once a party starts a downward trajectory, it is very hard to reverse that trend. And more impossible to do with so with only two years to do it in.
How did these seasoned leaders and senior members plot to stop the bleeding?
The plan hatched was simple. Factionalism within the ANC is huge. Many members have major ideological, political, policy, ethnic and philosophical differences with each other and with the party, that are often hidden from plain sight in "a broad church". Many have EFF, DA, MK, IFP and other leanings, stronger than whatever the ANC itself might stand for. But the ANC payroll and popularity is what keeps them there. Many in the ANC would have much to lose should the ANC lose power: houses, private schooling for their children, security, cars etc. For people such as these, with little to no generational wealth, that is a huge crisis.
This was when the Zuma weapon was designed. The strategy was simple. Increase Zuma’s persecution so that he becomes messianic in the pain he is suffering. Make the country’s overwhelming politically black majority feel a deep sadness over how he is being treated. But quietly keep assuring him that he is wanted by the ANC and that Cyril and Fikile are the problem. Then, fund the start of a new party, aligned with the traditions of the ANC. Thereafter, work it so that Zuma can take over the leadership of that party. Paint that party in such a way that the ANC masses see it as an agent which will free South Africa and the ANC from the anti-poor and anti-transformation shackles that are busy strangling it.
Zuma, interestingly, throughout his persecution scene in this play, and his election campaign for MK, maintained that he is a loyal member of the ANC. Yes, I know. The entire country went "Wait, what, how?" But both the ANC and MK just proceeded as if there was nothing to see here. A brief "Appear for your disciplinary hearing" was met with "I'm on my way" which was further replied to with "Ok, let's do this after the elections, shall we?"
Then, another plan was hatched to launch the ANC’s election campaign late. Delay it and let MK take off. Should the ANC, during the 2024 elections undergo an ongoing loss of votes, this party, MK, will be its preferred coalition partner. But the risk was and still is that Ramaphosa may prefer the DA as an election partner. His alignment with white monopoly capital is a huge risk to many within the ANC, especially the faction who love and serve Jacob Zuma. So, it’s essential, immediately after the elections if the losses are heavy, that Cyril be recalled as party president. Paul Mashatile should be installed as the caretaker president of the party and oversee the coalition negotiations. Paul’s first duty would be to bring Zuma on board as a senior coalition partner, and thereafter negotiate with other smaller parties.
Should MK get at least 14% in the elections, as some polls predicted, the ANC could fearlessly drop as low as 37%, and still retain power in South Africa, by forming a coalition with the MK Party. The big project goal is the get the ANC over 51%. Only Zuma, as both an ANC member and as the 'owner' and leader of the MK Party, has the power and popularity to do that.
Zuma will then, after a while as a coalition partner, disband MK or send it to its barracks, merge with the ANC, like the Nats did post-1994, and then become the chairperson of the ANC once again. He will then determine who runs the country. And will, at 82, become the armchair king of politics in South Africa. And the ANC will have many of its defected members back in the fold, regaining the lost majority.
The MK Party was not a long-term project. It was an ANC insurance policy. Designed within the Zuma and ANC underground. By concerned part insiders. Under Zuma's guidance and intelligence.
Zuma is still the most popular ANC member. No one comes close. He is the one people vote for.
What we are seeing is the marriage between the two Zumas of South Africa: Zuma the Corrupted and Zuma the Persecuted who produced a baby called Zuma the Saviour. I guess when Zuma said the ANC would rule till Jesus comes back, he was smiling to himself. About himself.
With the current predicted election outcome of the ANC dropping to very far below 50%, it appears that Cyril will be moved out quickly and Zuma will be moved in, smartly. That, ladies and gentlemen, is the ANC of the modern era. A party with a celebrity king and a fan club of millions. And Julius Malema, fully outmaneuvered by the master strategist, will be told to take his seat, either at the ANC table or at the back of the room, close to the door. By the king.
For those who don't understand the skills of political subversion that the ANC were trained in during exile in Cuba, Russia, Bulgaria and many other countries, this may sound farfetched. But for those who know, this is a master class in political subversion.
Check mate.
Lorenzo Davids
31 May 2024
That is what exactly happened behind closed doors.